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PostSubject: The GOP chances for a Senate takeover are eroding...   Wed Sep 26, 2012 9:22 pm

Scott Brown from Massachusetts was leading in most polls this summer by a comfortable margin. Elizabeth Warren was running a rather bumbling campaign that did not seem to have much direction. That happens when you have never run for office and it takes a while to get the bugs out. She was starting to hold her own but was still looking to lose come fall. But then there was a debate and Sen Brown attacked Warren for her ethnicity which is backfiring. The polls still show a tight race with Brown the slight favorite, but it was not supposed to be like that.

Now there is a video of Tommy Thompson who is running for Senate in Wisconsin telling how he will dismantle Medicare and Medicaid which are both extremely popular among senior citizens. The fact is, seniors usually overwhelmingly vote Republican so that video will hurt him in the polls which already show his challenger gaining ground big time. This also was supposed to be a walk in the park for the GOP when it comes to Senate pick-ups. They got their moderate for a blue state, and he now has some explaining to do.

Then there is Missouri where the GOP nominee made some rather unfortunate comments. He was running against an extremely unpopular incumbent and it looks like she is about even to win.

The Democrats are by no means guaranteed they will hang on to the Senate. There is still six weeks to go before the election. But many states have already started early voting and the candidates have a narrow window to convince the undecideds for their votes.
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PostSubject: Early voting in Ohio and the ID law struck down   Wed Oct 03, 2012 7:21 pm

With the Pennsylvania voter ID law struck down, one can color that state dark blue. Mitt Romney had not been spending any money in that state so he knew he would lose it. Still, his team had hoped opening that state up would ruin Obama's map to 270 Electoral Votes. A strong GOTV drive is in Obama's favor for the big cities of the state.

Ohio also started early voting as polls show Obama with a rather large lead. That does not bode well for Mitt as the map to his getting 269 Electoral Votes include Ohio most of the time. It is still possible for Mitt to win Ohio, but each day that passes makes it more and more unlikely he will win the state.

Some say the debates matter a whole lot while others say they won't this cycle. It is difficult to see how Mitt can turn this into a big win. He stumbled with his 47% remark to many senior citizens and veterans who are part of that number. He is facing flack from the right wing to own the remarks and double down on them.

The election has already started in many Swing States. The writing could be on the wall for Mitt Romney unless he can persuade a sizable percentage of the voters left to give him the benefit of the doubt. It ain't over until the fat woman sings, and she is looking at her costume backstage.
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PostSubject: Debate over: My thoughts   Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:14 pm

Barack Obama was off his game in the debate performance tonight as Mitt was aggressive. I think most will say Mitt won, but a problem came up for him: Mitt changed views again for the debate.

Mitt's plans to decrease all people's tax rates by 20% was changed to he is not giving any tax breaks to the wealthier people. He also stated he plans to cover pre-existing conditions in his health care plan.

Mitt had no real plans to offer and the debate did show the two differences between the candidates. But liberals wanted Obama to go for the jugular and he didn't. They are calling this a terrible debate and say it cost him the lead. Could this be the game changer Mitt needed to turn the polls around for a win?

I don't think so. I do think some polls will move in Romney's favor, but I don't think a bad debate would of hurt him much either.

There are still two more debates left and Obama could give a great performance.
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PostSubject: more on debate performance   Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:31 pm

I do think Obama needed a kick in the pants as well as his supporters out there. Many might of stayed home thinking the race was over so why bother to even vote. That is rarely the case for the other side as their base votes all the time.

The poor showing at the debate now means they have to work to make sure the vote is turned out. They also have to work at winning the next two debates. It should be about substance and not about showmanship, but this is a different era now. No one cares about the real message, just how it is delivered.

The real game changer will be in polls from Ohio an other swing states. That is the place it really matters.
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PostSubject: Polling fallout from debate part 2   Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:16 pm

Obama is polling worse now after the debate performance. The polls are slowly getting back to a dead heat like they were before the uptick in September. Ohio is now a Toss Up instead of Lean Obama while Florida and Virginia are Lean Romney. Many thought the debates didn't matter much, but polls show otherwise. Romney's odds of winning have increased greatly and he is on cruise control after his debate performances. Even the third party candidates are polling under 1% as their supporters are moving toward Romney.

This is not good news for the President and it looks like he has his work cut out for him. His performance in the second debate is now crucial if he wants a second term.
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PostSubject: Huge turnaround for Romney   Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:24 pm

Just as most were writing off Mitt Romney comes a terrible debate performance from Obama. The polls have reversed themselves with Romney taking commanding leads in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. (It seems Virgil Goode is only polling at a fraction of a percentage point in Virginia.)

This means Obama has to give the performance of a lifetime at Tuesday's debate if he wants to see another four year term.

Ohio is still in Obama's corner (just barely) and all Mitt needs it to take that or both Iowa and Nevada to win the election. The latter states are toss-ups with Iowa leaning toward Romney and Nevada a true toss up.

New Hampshire and Colorado are now likely Romney as well according to recent polls.

Just when we thought this one was in Obama's corner, it now has become a true horse race.

I imagine Tuesday's debate will be highly watched. I also know Obama is prepared this time.
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PostSubject: Post Debate   Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:47 pm

Barack Obama did what he had to do at the debate and it is going to take a few days to see how the polls reflect this. He fired up his base which is what he needed to do and made sure to note the major differences between the two for women voters to shore them up.

The next debate is foreign affairs which is where Obama expects to do very well.

Nevada and Iowa as well as Ohio are still slightly in Obama's favor with Colorado and its large Hispanic base also in play.

The two more conservative third party candidates such as Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode are going to attack Romney's move to the center. It is still quite unclear how Goode is going to do in Virginia, a must win state for Romney.

The question is: Did Romney move to the center too late?
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PostSubject: Polls are now evening out after debates   Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:01 pm

Obama needed to do well in his final two debate performances which he did. The base is now more enthused which is what he sorely needed. The polls are now steady for the most part and it will be a very tight race. Early voting is also in full force and both parties are now in GOTV mode.

The closing arguments are being made for what is left of the undecided voters as well. Colin Powell again endorsed Obama which is one of the few endorsements that matter when it comes to moderate and independent voters. Still, it is the ground game that will win this one and Ohio is one of the bright spots for Obama. He still has work to do and Romney can still play catch up on election day when more Republicans go out to vote (early voting skews Democratic).

Romney's team keeps saying Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play but the polls show otherwise. They might be doing this so Obama spends more money in those expensive states. The last few weeks are where the smart money decisions have to be made. Obama is still spending money in Florida even though polls show Romney ahead. It is possible GOTV and other factors can still turn Florida blue, but we will have to wait until election night on that one.

Talks of an Electoral tie are also in the air as well. Most doubt this outcome as it means splitting Iowa and Nevada somehow. Both of those states are turning bluer every day which means there would have to be some improbable paths to a tie.

The one unknown is the third party candidates and how many votes they are getting. So far the results show of those who voted 5% gave gone to them. It was not broken down as to who received what votes. We will find out more on election night.
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PostSubject: Cyclone Sandy is the October Surprise   Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:57 pm

Barack Obama has stopped all campaigning for the next few days to concentrate on helping get aid to those affected by the superstorm Cyclone Sandy. This also is a test for the Romney campaign and their surrogates on attacking the President at a time when such attacks could backfire. Someone forgot to tell that to Sen McCain who called Obama the worst President ever yesterday.

Governor Christie now has a new best friend in Barack Obama. A month ago he was also spewing the terrible leadership of Obama and these past few days he has had nothing but praise for the man. Asked on Fox News about Romney visiting the area, Gov Christie told them point blank he had no time for politics. Politics be damned is what he said. While many are trying to avoid politics in the pundit world, there are others who wonder what Gov Christie's words of praise will do in the last days of campaigning.

Cyclone Sandy is a massive storm that is quite rare in the United States. A cyclone is much larger than a hurricane and just as powerful. The damage alone from New Jersey should attest to what they had just been through. FEMA and other organizations like the Red Cross have their work cut out for them. Such a huge population area is affected by this storm and the response is what will matter to them.

The next few days are going to be critical for them. But it does seem many are now going back to a sense of normalcy. It will take months for others to get back and rebuild their homes.
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PostSubject: Heading into the final weekend   Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:01 pm

Today President Obama got good news from the jobs numbers as the USA added 171,000 in October. That is much higher than the estimates from many groups. Also, the past three months were upwardly revised as well.

Unemployment rose to 7.9% as thousands more started to look for work again. The number might seem like bad news, but it shows a confidence in the economy as more people are pounding the pavement.

The performance of the President in Cyclone Sandy also has been good as well.

Still, the race is looking to be a close one and it all comes out to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Both sides know this and they have been feverishly working to get their bases out. It also looks like many third party candidates won't have an effect on the races as once thought. Goode is only polling at 1% in Virginia which is down from his 9% during the spring. Still, a close race means every vote counts and that 1% could be costly for Romney. Virginia is a must win state for Romney unless he takes Wisconsin.

Early voting is also quite strong and those results can show which way the race is going. It also can help the candidates figure out what they need to do to win the states.

I will put up a final post on Tuesday to tell others what to look for when the results start coming in. Then there will be a nice break before the 2016 race kicks in.
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PostSubject: Election Day   Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:42 pm

The results will start coming in on 7PM ET in some states and it might take all night to find out who won the election. Cyclone Sandy might keep some Eastern Coast states polls open longer than usual if some problems arise due to voting lines.

There are also problems dealing with provisional voting in Ohio which might keep the race going on for the next few days if it is very close.

With so much going on, it is not going to be easy to keep track of it all. Some sites have make your own Electoral College maps to make it easier to know who has what states in their columns.

Third Party candidates are also unknowns at this point as well. Look to see what kind of totals Jill Stein, Gary Johnson and Virgil Goode are tallying up.
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PostSubject: Obama wins re-election   Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:31 am

Ohio was called 15 minutes ago for Obama ending a long campaign where over $3 billion was spent. Four states have yet to be called which are also swing states as well.

The third party candidates did not get many votes as some had thought. Their results were negligible against Mitt Romney and/or Obama.

Now, we will see the start of the 2016 race.

With this post I end my analysis of the 2012 election.
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PostSubject: Re: My Political Post   Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:15 am

"The election where you get to choose between a turd sandwich and a douche bag."- SOUTHPARK
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PostSubject: Re: My Political Post   Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:05 pm

I don't know when the last time there were two really good candidates out there running for President. JFK comes to mind, as well as Ike Eisenhower.

Let's face it: Most people don't want to go through the hassle and grief of running three and a half years for an office (doing fund raisers most of the time).

I did think it was a bit surprising the third party candidates did so poorly. The talk in their circles was record votes for them. They are going to be lucky if they get a combined 1% of the total vote. They spent the most part of the campaign stating how well they were going to do and their supporters went to Mitt Romney in droves.

At least it is over for now. We are going to start seeing people visiting Iowa by the start of 2013. The cycle will start all over again.
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PostSubject: Post Wrap Up   Thu Nov 15, 2012 5:36 pm

Well, the election is over and Obama lost only two states this time around: Indiana and North Carolina. He also lost support among white voters by a larger margin this time around. Many were disappointed they did not see the change which was promised to them.

Florida, Virginia and a few other states were closer in votes this time around. Obama turned out his core base of supporters which gave him the win again.

332 Electoral votes were won as well as a sliver over 50% of the popular vote went to Obama. Romney actually did quite well as the core base of Republicans overwhelmingly came out to vote for him. Their hatred of Obama was a driving force and made them forgive all of Romney's shortcomings.

Gary Johnson received over 1 million votes making him the only Libertarian candidate to break the threshold.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/

It was a close race for the most part this entire year. Obama had poll numbers in the high 40s which suggests re-election troubles. He overcame them as Romney was not able to win over the undecideds in the end.
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